Mar
22Week 1 in the NFL is always the toughest week from a professional handicappers perspective as we have very little to go on before the games count for real. The preseason is a very misleading time in that with the exception of the third game, most of the action centers on second and third string players who will have little or no impact on the upcoming team. So despite being able to study the lines for an extra day(the lines came out Sunday morning as opposed to a typical Tuesday morning with no ‘OFF’ games), it still can be a tough chore for us handicappers to give out winning information to our readers. We were happy however with our 8-6-2 ATS showing because that is hands down the toughest week to analyze and it gets easier from that point on. So its on to another season of picking at 60 percent efficiency. Lets look at Week 1 however to see what he hit and missed with.
Colts(-6) vs. Saints: our pick: Colts(W): most competitors went the other way on this one as the Saints were the chick pick of Week 1. We looked at it differently in that we believed the Colts matched up very well against the poor Saints secondary and that the Colts D was much improved with S Bob Sanders in the lineup which they proved in the opener. Nice win for us here.
Jaguars(-6.5) vs. Titans: our pick: Titans(W): another game where most went the other direction. We love Vince Young and his ability to keep his team in games. 6.5 was way too much for the offensively challenged Jags to give, especially with a new starter in David Garrard. Also we believed the Titans would be able to run the ball and they wound up with over 200 yards on the ground in an surprising victory.
Vikings(-3) vs. Falcons: our pick: Vikings(W) This one seemed easy to us as any team on the road with Joey Harrington at QB is a great team to bet against. The Vikings ran at will against a soft Falcons D and the demoralizing preseason was enough to sabatoge the opener for Atlanta.
Patriots(-6.5) vs. Jets: our pick: Jets(L): was dissapointed with this pick as we banked on the recent history between these two teams where the last seven regular season games between the two were decided by 7 points or less. The fact that the Patriots apparently cheated by videotaping the Jets’ signals without a doubt had something to do with the lobsided win but the Pats clearly were the better team here.
Rams(-1) vs. Panthers: our pick: Rams(L): really liked the Rams here who we felt were much improved going into the season. Carolina however played great D and ran the ball well which would have allowed them to beat anyone by the way they played here. Still like the Rams offense but the D is a major issue to keep an eye on.
Broncos(-3) vs. Bills: our pick: Bills(W): We were definately outside the popular opinion here as many thought Denver would steamrole the Bills. However we love the home underdog angle and figured the improvement of the Bills offense would do enough to keep them in the game. They would have won outright if they didn’t give up a last second FG.
Raiders(-1) vs. Lions: our pick: Raiders(W): Lots of cappers took the Raiders here figuring new coach Lane Kiffin would spark them to a home win. With a very tough defense, the Raiders matched up well here but they got off to a terrible start they couldn’t recover from. They did make a run in the second half but turnovers did them in which reminded many of their pathetic performance last year.
Seahawks(-6) vs. Buccaneers: our pick: Seahawks(W): This was an easy one as the Seahawks matched up favorably in all facets of the game against the Buc’s. It took a half for them to get on track, but Seattle did their jobs in the second half of the game to put end this contest.
Redskins(-3) vs. Dolphins: our pick: Redskins(tie): these games kill us as we picked the winning side but it ends in a push. Washington alsmost won it with a miraculous catch at the end of the second half but the tie went into the books which robs us of a win.
49ers(-3) vs. Cardinals: our pick: 49ers(tie): see above.
Chargers(-6.5) vs. Bears: our pick: Bears(L): We went with the trends here as the Bears were 20-2 ATS in their last 22 games against the AFC West. Chicago was under the number until the fourth quarter when the D tired. Very frustrating loss in this contest.
Eagles(-3) vs. Packers: our pick: Eagles(L): Another frustrating loss as the Pack offense did nothing all day but got their points due to two muffed punts by the Eagles punt returners. If it weren’t for the turnovers, this was a win.
Steelers(-4.5) vs. Browns: our pick: Steelers(W): Our best bet of the week, the Steelers absolutely destroyed the Browns here. This was a no-doubter as the disparity between the two is the size of the grand canyon. Unbelievably, we saw other publications picking the Browns. Wow!
Bengals(-2.5) vs. Ravens: our pick: Bengals(W): The Bengals tried to give this one away but Baltimore’s batch of turnovers were too much for them in this game.
Texans(-3) vs. Chiefs: our pick: Texans(W): We liked this matchup for the Texans as they were playing at home and they matched up well against a weak Chiefs D. KC looks like one of the worst teams in the league and this was a nice game to take advantage of a small line before the Chiefs showed everyone how bad they are.
Cowboys(-5.5) vs. Giants: our pick: Giants(L): Was all set to chalk up the win here after the Giants scored a late TD to get within 3. The Cowboys then score an even later TD to go up 10 and end the contest. Awful Giants D that undermined the great offense. Went with the Giants’ 5-1 ATS record in last six against Dallas.
So now it is on to Week 2.
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